Prop It Like It's Hot: Jets vs. 49ers

The Adventures of a Mediocre Sports Bettor: Ryan breaks down his favorite prop bets for Jets vs. 49ers on Monday night.

The return of the NFL season means the return of everybody’s second favorite NFL activity besides watching the games… betting on the games.

Each week, I’ll give you five prop bets that I like for this week’s Jets game. I’m a purely casual (mostly bad) sports better, but I will literally put my money where my mouth is and bet each prop I list in these weekly articles. So put down a few coins with me and let’s see how much money we can make together…

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*All odds via DraftKings

1. Garrett Wilson OVER 5.5 Receptions (-170)
   
   If there’s a player that Jets fans are as excited for as Aaron Rodgers, it’s year three Garrett Wilson with Aaron Rodgers. Wilson had his way with pretty much and DB he saw in open practices this preseason, and I expect Rodgers to look his way early and often. I get a little worried the Niners will bracket him on anything deeper down the field, so I’m avoiding a yardage total. But it truly wouldn’t surprise me to see GW see double digit targets in this one.
   

2. Tyler Conklin OVER 28.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
   
   Tyler Conklin has been a pretty underrated weapon for the Jets, and all reports have been that he has served as a reliable safety blanket and weapon in the middle of the field for Rodgers in the lead up to this season. I think the 49ers will do everything they can to try and limit Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall, which should mean more opportunities for Conklin. The 49ers were pretty average against tight ends last season, and 28.5 yards is too low for how present I think Conklin is going to be in this offense.
   

3. Jermaine Johnson OVER 0.25 Sacks (+155)
   
   The offensive line for the 49ers is pretty average, and even though they got reinforcements with future Hall of Fame LT Trent Williams ending his hold out and returning to the team yesterday, we have no idea what kind of shape he’s in after missing the offseason program and preseason. JJ broke out last year, and all he has to do is be on the clean up end of a half-sack for this one to pay off.
   

4. Breece Hall OVER 96.5+ Rush + Rec Yards (-115)
   
   Especially early this season and against a defense like the 49ers, I think the Jets will try to protect Aaron Rodgers and ease him in to the season by taking some of the workload off him. Enter the man who will be challenging Christian McCaffrey for the title of best running back in the NFL this season, Breece Hall. I think Rodgers can unlock Breece Lightning’s true superpower as a receiver, and there has been some significant losses along the Niners Defensive Line this offseason with the losses of Arik Armstead and Javon Kinlaw. The pass rush is ferocious, but one way to try and slow Nick Bosa down can be running right at him.
   

5. George Kittle OVER 45.5 Yards Receiving (-125)
   
   The 49ers have one of the best one-two punches at wide receiver in the NFL, and sometimes we forget just how good George Kittle really is. In this one, the one-two WR punch of San Francisco meets the combo of New York’s Sauce Gardener and D.J. Reed. Add in the reports of Brandon Aiyuk maybe not getting a full workload week one and Christian McCaffrey coming back from injury, and I think Kyle Shanahan will try to avoid the corners a bit and attack the Jets linebackers with one of the best tight ends in football.

The Extra Point

To sum it all up, I’ll throw a weekly $1 parlay on all five bets in the Prop It Like It’s Hot article. The parlay bets may vary slightly from the main write-up depending on what DraftKings lets me combine on a same game parlay. This week our parlay is:

Gerritt Wilson OVER 5.5 Receptions (-170)
Tyler Conklin OVER 28.5 Rec Yards (-115)
Breece Hall OVER 96.5 Rush + Rec Yards (-115)
George Kittle OVER 45.5 Rec Yards (-125)
Quincy Williams OVER 7.5 Tackles + Assists (-115)
*swapped for JJ OVER 0.25 Sacks since it’s not available in SGP

Parlay Odds +1700