Prop It Like It's Hot: Jets vs. Broncos

Adventures of a mediocre sports bettor. Ryan breaks down his favorite bets for Jets vs. Patriots on Sunday afternoon.

Okay, so… not my most sterling moment in Week 3, let’s go over it real quick:

Garrett Wilson OVER 65.5 Rec Yards — MISS ❌
Mike Williams OVER 24.5 Rec Yards — MISS ❌
Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 17.5 Rush Attempts — MISS ❌
Hunter Henry OVER 3.5 Receptions — MISS ❌
Breece Hall OVER 31.5 Rec Yards — HIT ✅
Patriots +6 — MISS ❌

Weekly Record: 1-5
Season Record: 5-13

Like the sub-headline says, this are the adventures of a mediocre sports bettor, after all. Some weeks the games get a little wonky and you’re not gonna hit the way that you hoped for. No matter what, though, we still ride.

Let’s get to my picks for Sunday afternoon against Denver…

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*All odds via DraftKings

1. Breece Hall OVER 66.5 Rush Yds
   
   Breece Lightning may not have had his full breakout game on the ground quite yet, but at only 66.5 yards I am slamming that over this week. As of now, Hall is averaging 56.7 rushing yards per game but I fully expect that to tick up as the weeks go on, and this is a good match-up for him. As staunch as Denver’s pass defense is, their rushing defense is pretty much middle-of-the-pack. It’s also worth noting that Hall is averaging 125 rushing yards per game in two career match-ups vs the Broncos, so I’m counting on that trend to continue today.
   

2. Aaron Rodgers OVER 2.5 Rush Yards
   
   Much to our surprise and delight, our 40-year-old QB looked a helluva lot more spry in his last game than we ever expected. He was constantly moving up, around and outside of the pocket, and even escaped for a few rushes for a total of 18 yards on three attempts. With Patrick Surtain II playing the role of Christian Gonzalez this week, I think it’s safe to expect that Denver will attempt a similar game plan against the Jets defense which could lead to a couple plays that break down where Rodgers can use his legs.
   

3. Bo Nix UNDER 186.5 Pass Yds
   
   Last week was most definitely Bo Nix’s best in his short pro career, with a season-high 69.4 completion percentage, no turnovers and 263 total yards (216 passing, 47 rushing), but he’s seeing a different kind of defense today that has had an extra few days to prepare for him. The Jets D absolutely dismantled the Patriots and veteran QB Jacoby Brissett in their last game and now they’re facing a quarterback that’s significantly more inexperienced and turnover prone with four giveaways in his first three career games. This defense has been humming the last game-and-a-half, and I just don’t see them letting Nix get going in the air.
   

4. Allen Lazard OVER 31.5 Rec Yds
   
   Would you believe me if I told you that Allen Lazard was averaging nearly 50 yards per game and leading the NFL in touchdown receptions this year? Yeah, I wouldn’t believe me either, but it’s true! Lazard appears to be back to his Green Bay ways now that his buddy Rodgers is back under center, and has been a legitimately viable option in the Jets passing attack in two of their three games so far this season. With Surtain shadowing Garrett Wilson this afternoon, this will likely be another game that Rodgers and the Jets need to spread things out to their other weapons, which makes Lazard a pretty solid play here.
   

5. Jets -7.5
   
   Denver has a good pass defense but they can be run on, and with the Jets Killer Bees duo there’s no reason to think they can’t make them pay for focusing so much of their D on Garrett Wilson. Rodgers is coming off a game where he picked apart a Patriots defense that people were lauding, and the Jets look like a team that is taking that next step to being a confident pick to beat up on inferior teams. This could be lower scoring than we expect, but I don’t see how the Jets don’t handle this Broncos limited offense.
   

The Extra Point

So to recap, this week our parlay looks like this:

Breece Hall OVER 66.5 Rush Yds
Aaron Rodgers OVER 2.5 Rush Yards
Bo Nix UNDER 186.5 Pass Yds
Allen Lazard OVER 31.5 Rec Yds
Jets -7.5

Parlay Odds +1300

After a welcome break after their Thursday night win, I’m pumped for the Jets (and myself, honestly) to get another crack at a win this afternoon. Let’s go Jets, and let’s make some money!