Prop It Like It's Hot: Jets vs. Patriots
Adventures of a mediocre sports bettor. Ryan breaks down his favorite bets for Jets vs. Patriots on Thursday Night.
Alright, we were much better in Week 2 than we were in the first week. Let’s go over it:
Allen Lazard OVER 2.5 Receptions — MISS ❌
Tony Pollard OVER 51.5 Rush Yds - HIT ✅
Garrett Wilson ANYTIME TD - MISS ❌
Will Levis OVER 11.5 Rush Yds — HIT ✅
Jermaine Johnson OVER 0.25 Sacks - MISS ❌ (get well soon, JJ)
Jets -4 — HIT ✅
Weekly Record: 3-3
Season Record: 4-7
Much like the Jets, it felt like my season started in earnest in Week 2 against the Titans. Both Gang Green and myself will both be looking to continue to build on a better performance and round out into real contender form.
Let’s get to my picks for Thursday Night against New England…
*All odds via DraftKings
Garrett Wilson OVER 65.5 Rec Yards (-125)
Wilson faces what should be his first true smash spot of the year against a Patriots secondary who just gave up a combined 22 catches for 246 yards to DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba this past Sunday. The Patriots have nobody who can match up with GW like L’Jarious Sneed did for the Titans, and he should be able to make them pay for it tonight. Expect Aaron Rodgers to look his way early and often… again.Mike Williams OVER 24.5 Rec Yards (-115)
Nine Route Mike saw his snap count quadruple from Week 1 to Week 2 as he continues to work back from offseason ACL surgery, and he was much more involved overall against the Titans. We know Williams can eclipse this number on just one catch, and to whatever extent the Patriots may try to key on on stopping Garrett Wilson, that should free up a number of juicy one on one opportunities for the Jets’ big offseason acquisition. This will likely be the last real discount we get on handicapping Williams’ production as I expect him to move into a true WR2 role beginning tonight.Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 17.5 Rush Attempts (+105)
The focal point of the Patriots’ offense is averaging 23 carries and 100 yards per game, and comes up against a Jets team currently ranked 24th against the run. That’s a recipe for a ton of Rhamondre, early and often, and in an effort to control time of possession and limit the amount of times Rodgers sees the ball. I’d expect New England to even continue with a rush heavy attack if they get behind in this one, as their offense is not one built to come back through the air attack.Hunter Henry OVER 3.5 Receptions (-105)
The New England offense is not one that operates through the air or to wide receivers, as Jacoby Brissett is averaging just over 5 yards per completion through two games, and has yet to pass for over 150 yards in a game this season. But when Brissett threw the ball last week, it was to his tight end Hunter Henry, who saw eight catches on twelve targets. Reports are that Michael Carter II and D.J. Reed should be back and healthy for this game, so I don’t expect Brissett to challenge the Jets’ corners much. The Rhamondre Stevenson run game will be all to try and set up play action passes for Henry.Greg Zuerlein OVER 1.5 FG Made (-120)
It’s a kicker bet!! Greg The Leg has been back to his normal, stalwart self after a bit of a shaky preseason and is yet to miss a field goal (although just 1-1) or extra point (4-4) this season. The Patriots have a stout defense and while I think the Jets will be able to move the ball, I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see a few drives stall in the red zone against a bend but don’t break defense similar to what the Jets have.
The Extra Point
So to recap, this week our parlay looks like this (with the added 6th leg game line bet):
Garrett Wilson OVER 65.5 Rec Yards
Mike Williams OVER 24.5 Rec Yards
Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 66.5 Rush Yards
*Changed from the RUSH ATTEMPTS bet for parlay based on what DK allows
Hunter Henry OVER 3.5 Receptions
Breece Hall OVER 31.5 Rec Yards
*Changed from Zuerlein OVER 1.5FG Made for parlay based on what DK allows
New England Patriots +6
*Call this a PTSD (Pats Traumatic Stress Disorder) bet, but as I said in my game prediction, I think this one will be close and ugly. I’d be thrilled to be wrong!
Parlay Odds +3400
It’s been a whirlwind three games in 11 days, and tonight will be assuredly be the most stressful of them all. Let’s have a night tonight, and I hope any of you who are attending the home opener bring the noise!